☀️ Solar Flare / EMP Event

Overview

A massive coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun strikes Earth’s magnetosphere, inducing enormous geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in any long conductor — power lines, pipelines, undersea cables. The result: high-voltage transformers blow, the grid cascades into failure, and modern civilization grinds to a halt.

Unlike nuclear war or pandemics, a Carrington-class solar event isn’t a question of if but when. The Sun produces these roughly every 150 years, and we’re overdue.

The core problem isn’t the flare — it’s the grid. Modern society runs on electricity. Remove it for weeks or months, and every other system fails in sequence: water, food, communication, transportation, healthcare, finance.

The Science

What Is a CME?

A coronal mass ejection is a massive burst of solar plasma and magnetic field ejected from the Sun’s corona. It can contain billions of tons of magnetized particles traveling at 1,000–3,000 km/s. When aimed at Earth, the transit time is 15–72 hours.

How It Damages Infrastructure

1. CME impacts magnetosphere → Earth’s magnetic field distorts violently
2. Rapidly changing magnetic field → Induces electric currents in long conductors
3. GICs flow through power grid → Extra-high-voltage (EHV) transformers saturate and overheat
4. Transformers fail → Cascading blackout across interconnected grids

Key vulnerability: EHV transformers (345 kV+). These are the backbone of the grid. Each weighs 100–400 tons, costs $3–10 million, and takes 12–24 months to manufacture. The world produces about 100 per year. The US alone has ~2,000 of them. If hundreds fail simultaneously, there is no spare inventory to replace them.

EMP vs CME

A nuclear EMP has three components: E1 (fast pulse, fries electronics), E2 (similar to lightning), and E3 (slow pulse, like a CME — damages grid). A CME only produces the E3-equivalent. This means personal electronics generally survive a CME if not connected to the grid during the event.

Historical Precedent

Carrington Event (1859)

The strongest recorded geomagnetic storm. Telegraph operators received shocks, equipment sparked and caught fire, and some telegraph systems continued operating with batteries disconnected — powered by induced current alone. Auroras were visible at the equator.

Modern impact estimate: $2–10 trillion in damage. 4–10 years for full grid recovery. 130 million Americans without power for months.

Quebec Blackout (1989)

A moderate geomagnetic storm collapsed Hydro-Québec’s grid in 92 seconds. 6 million people lost power for 9 hours. Transformers in New Jersey and the UK were damaged.

Near Miss (July 2012)

A Carrington-class CME crossed Earth’s orbital path — but Earth had been in that spot just 9 days earlier. NASA estimated a 12% chance of a Carrington-class event hitting Earth per decade.

Timeline of Collapse

Hour 0: CME Impact

• Power grid surges, protective systems trip
• Cascading blackouts across affected hemisphere
• Some EHV transformers damaged or destroyed immediately

Hours 1–24: Blackout Spreads

• Grid operators attempt controlled shutdowns to save remaining transformers
• Internet backbone fails (data centers on backup generators)
• Cell towers: 4–8 hours of battery backup, then silence
• Traffic signals, streetlights, building systems — all dark
• ATMs, credit card systems, banking — offline

Days 1–7: Infrastructure Failure

• Backup generators exhaust fuel (hospitals: 48–72 hrs typical)
• Municipal water stops (pumps need electricity)
• Fuel supply halts (pumps at gas stations need power)
• Refrigeration fails — food spoilage begins
• Wastewater treatment fails — contamination risk

Weeks 1–4: Supply Chain Collapse

• No fuel deliveries → no trucking → no food resupply
• Hospitals non-functional
• Pharmacies depleted
• Communication limited to battery/solar-powered radio

Months 1–6+: Long Recovery

• Transformer manufacturing ramps up (globally)
• Partial grid restoration in priority areas
• Government rationing and distribution
• Full recovery: 1–10 years depending on damage scope

What Survives

Generally Safe

• Battery-powered devices not connected to the grid at time of impact
• Vehicles (modern cars have short wiring — low GIC risk from CME)
• Solar panels (panels survive, but grid-tied inverters may not)
• Unplugged electronics (laptops, phones, radios)
• Non-electronic tools and manual equipment

At Risk

• Anything plugged into the wall during the event
• Grid-tied solar/wind systems (inverter damage)
• Landline phones (long copper lines act as antennas)
• Wired internet infrastructure

Destroyed

• EHV transformers (grid backbone)
• Long pipeline SCADA systems
• Undersea cable repeaters

Priority Actions

Before the Event (Preparedness)

1. Faraday protection for critical electronics — small radios, solar chargers, flashlights, a spare phone. A galvanized metal trash can with cardboard lining works. Test with an FM radio inside.
2. Water storage — minimum 1 gallon/person/day for 30 days. A 55-gallon drum per person is ideal.
3. Food stockpile — 90 days of shelf-stable food (canned, dried, freeze-dried).
4. Cash — ATMs and card systems will be down. Keep $500–1,000 in small bills.
5. Medications — 90-day supply of all prescriptions.
6. Communication — Battery-powered AM/FM radio. Ham radio license + HF transceiver for long-range.
7. Alternative energy — Solar panels + charge controller + battery bank (keep charge controller in Faraday cage as spare).

During the Event (15–72 hr warning from NOAA)

1. Unplug everything from the wall. Pull the main breaker.
2. Fill all water containers — bathtubs, buckets, bottles. Municipal water will stop within days.
3. Fuel up vehicles — gas stations need power to pump.
4. Withdraw cash from ATMs while they still work.
5. Charge all devices fully, then unplug before impact.
6. Alert neighbors — community coordination starts now.

After Impact

1. Water first — Begin rationing immediately. Start purification of natural sources.
2. Food preservation — Eat perishables first (fridge: 4 hours, freezer: 24–48 hours without opening).
3. Community organization — Pool resources, establish neighborhood watch, share skills.
4. Communication — AM/FM radio for emergency broadcasts. Ham radio for coordination.
5. Security — Social order degrades after ~72 hours without resupply. Prepare accordingly.
6. Medical triage — Gather all medications and first aid supplies. Identify medical professionals in your area.

Water Without the Grid

Municipal water depends on electric pumps. When power fails:

Immediate Sources

• Water heater tank (30–80 gallons)
• Toilet tanks (not bowls) — safe if no chemical treatments
• Ice in freezers (melt it)
• Swimming pools (treat before drinking — use for washing/flushing)

Sustainable Sources

• Rainwater collection — Clean and abundant in many climates. Filter and purify.
• Wells with hand pumps — Install a manual pump as backup to electric.
• Streams and rivers — Filter → chemical treat → boil (if you have fuel).
• Water purification: Boiling (1 min rolling boil), bleach (8 drops/gallon, 30 min wait), UV (SteriPEN), ceramic filters (Berkey, Sawyer).

Communication in a Blackout

What Still Works

• AM/FM radio (receive only) — Emergency broadcast system
• Ham radio (HF) — Global reach with proper antenna. 40m and 80m bands for regional, 20m for continental.
• CB radio — Short range (5–15 miles) but no license needed
• FRS/GMRS walkie-talkies — Neighborhood-scale communication
• Written messages and runners — Don’t underestimate analog methods

What’s Dead

• Cell phones (towers down)
• Internet (infrastructure down)
• Landlines (exchanges need power)
• Satellite phones (may work if satellites survive — ground infrastructure is the bottleneck)

Faraday Cage Construction

A Faraday cage blocks electromagnetic fields, protecting electronics inside.

Simple DIY Options

1. Galvanized metal trash can — Line interior with cardboard (insulate contents from metal). Place electronics inside, close lid firmly. Test: place an FM radio tuned to a strong station inside. If signal drops to nothing, it works.

2. Ammo cans — Metal military surplus ammo cans with rubber gasket seals. Line with cardboard.

3. Aluminum foil wrap — Wrap device in cloth/plastic, then 3+ layers of heavy-duty aluminum foil, each layer fully sealed. Crude but functional.

4. Microwave oven — Partial shielding only (~30 dB). Better than nothing but not reliable for strong EMP.

What to Protect

• Hand-crank or solar radio
• Small solar charger + charge controller
• USB drives with critical information (maps, medical references, manuals)
• Spare flashlights with batteries
• Handheld ham/CB radio

Gear Checklist

Tier 1 — Essential

• Water storage (30+ gallons per person)
• Water purification (filter + chemical)
• 30-day food supply (canned/dried)
• Battery-powered AM/FM radio + extra batteries
• Flashlights + headlamps + batteries
• Cash ($500+ in small bills)
• First aid kit + 90-day medications
• Manual can opener
• Fire starting (matches, lighters, ferro rod)

Tier 2 — Prepared

• Faraday cage with protected electronics
• Solar panel + charge controller + battery
• Hand-crank radio/charger
• Ham radio (HF transceiver) + antenna
• 90-day food supply
• Water filter system (gravity-fed ceramic)
• Hand tools (axe, saw, shovel)
• Fuel storage (stabilized gasoline, propane)
• Comprehensive first aid + antibiotics

Tier 3 — Self-Sufficient

• Well with manual hand pump
• Wood stove for heating/cooking
• Large-scale food preservation (canning, smoking, root cellar)
• Seed bank for sustainable food production
• Community communication network (ham radio net)
• Renewable energy system (off-grid solar + battery bank)
• Reference library (printed — medical, agricultural, mechanical)

Key Numbers

References

• National Academy of Sciences, Severe Space Weather Events (2008)
• EMP Commission Report to Congress (2008)
• Lloyd’s of London / Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Solar Storm Risk to the North American Electric Grid (2013)
• NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
• NASA, “Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012”

Researched and written by Alfred 🧠